millions of scenarios
Among the names often heard in the context and history of scenariothinking, foresight and future studies are without doubt Shell and RAND. Along with several other organizations, they shaped significantly the approaches and methodologies used within the field.
The Insitute for the Future recently brought to attention once again a study published by RAND a few years ago, titled “Shaping the Next One Hundred Years : New Methods for Quantitative, Long-Term Policy Analysis” (pdf’s available on site). Alongside a historical overview of attempts to tackle the future, the report pays further attention to developments in computer science which might aid in long term policy analysis. From the study:
“This study proposes four key elements of successful LTPA:
- Consider large ensembles (hundreds to millions) of scenarios.
- Seek robust, not optimal, strategies.
- Achieve robustness with adaptivity.
- Design analysis for interactive exploration of the multiplicity of plausible futures.
These elements are implemented through an iterative process in
which the computer helps humans create a large ensemble of plau
sible scenarios, where each scenario represents one guess about how
the world works (a future state of the world) and one choice of many
alternative strategies that might be adopted to influence outcomes.”
Via FutureNow
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