convergence
The convergence of technologies such as nanotechnology, biotechnology, IT & robotics, is a much debated trend in research labs around the world. It is also gaining attention in terms of assessing possible futures because of its potential sociocultural, environmental and political-institutional consequences and societal changes.
The Guardian’s blogs editor Kevin Anderson recently visited a conference at the James Martin Institute at Oxford University, organised by the UK’s Economic & Social Research Council trying to chart a direction for the future of research in the UK, through the exploration of future scenarios. The following scenarios came up:
a world of gridlock, in which converging technologies have led to a segmentation of worldviews, immobilizing it, a world shaped by high-competition, little co-operation and conflicting values. think: genetic screenings and pre-birth offspring selection, conflicting viewpoints on reproductive innovations such as genetic enhancement, etc.
a competitive but regulated world, in which legislation runs behind rapid innovation, in which new developments take place at a fast pace but follow-up is severely lacking, it is aimed at trying to manage and regulate the uncertain future. think: superbabies-’production’ gone wrong, China-subsidized African nanotube-production, climate change effects and turn-around ventures into wind, coal and biofuel energy plants and nano-tech enhanced batteries, etc.
an open, dynamic, co-operative world, in which information is openly shared and public-private cooperation is highly dynamic. think: open-source developed life-extending and -enhancing drugs, charity-driven genetic experiments (e.g.. six-legged horse winning races for needy children), complexity driving development of human-assistive technologies such as neural nets for climate change to help deal with information overload and information noise, etc.
a no-glue world, extremely fluid and dynamic, hyper-competitive. think: highly interdependent complex, pro-active systems (cf. adaptive-profile-based intelligent agents acting in your name), overwhelming complexity and information-noise, virtual world currencies becoming increasingly real-world, manipulative news agencies owned by equity firms, indifference leads to death of terrorism, converging languages (e.g. Arab-Mandarin), virtual identities as important as real ones, etc.
The futures were brought to life by the participants through storylines and newspaper headlines. For more, check out Kevin’s blog post as well as some of the interesting comments.
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