business 2025 part 2
A while ago I blogged about missing out on BBC World’s Business 2025. Thanks to the host of the show, René Carayol, we are now able to catch up as he put the videos (part 1, part 2) of the show on his site.
Business 2025 looks ahead to the year 2025 interviewing people from businesses in six different areas (space travel, fashion design, mobile communication, zero-emission cars, sports stadium architecture). Three futurologists, Dr. Peter Cochrane, Dr. Morgaine Gaye, Dr. David Bodanis are asked to reflect upon the plausibility for business success of the ideas mentioned as well as their own personal views on the future inspired by the broader themes.
Watching it on a trainride home recently, I put together sort of a summary/notes overview of the show.
space travel
Mike Healy & Justin Byrne from EADS Astrium foresee a satellite world ahead filled with handheld devices in which it will be possible to track and trace anything (cf. arrival of Galileo) ranging from goods to wandering teenagers. As satellite systems take over more and more of traditional terrestrial broadcasting infrastructure will disappear. As a consequence the communication business will become greener (satellites are solar powered).
EADS showcases their space-plane, a competitor to Virgin Galactic‘s SpaceShip Two (see video) (difference: scalable solution for mass production) ready to launch by 2012. Mike & Justin note that the best way to travel around the world is to go up into space and down again. By using the earth’s rotational speed one can theoretically go from any one place to another on earth in less than 90mins. EADS shows its efforts for a robotic mission to Mars by 2015, eta 2030.
Reflections by futurologist panel:
Bodanis thinks a satellite future and space travel will happen and refers to NASA’s satellites gazing into our solar system, checking out planets features. Yet, he also sees the danger of big companies each claiming a piece of the territory for exploitation. He prefers us to look at the planets, learn and dream about them but not go there and mess things up. He likes the idea of leaving our children the perfect dream of the perfect virgin territory, the perfect waiting place.
Gaye worries that when we start transporting stuff back and forth between Mars & Earth, chemically we do not know what it might do to the ecosystem. Scifi movies have traditionally been a stimulant to move from imagination to reality.
Cochrane notes that space travel’s commercialization is beyond doubt. It is inherent in the way we do things. Try to think of any technology we developed which has not become commercialized at some point. We do need to step away from the government funding model if we want to get there.
fashion world
chris brooke & bruno basso are fashion designers who are using digital (textile) printing (and workflow) techniques for fashion design. Their business focuses on the high end of the fashion market. Currently Russia is where their top clients are, who are willing to pay extra for exclusivity. Besides digital textile manipulation in terms of colours and patterns, they are also looking into how to do the same for textures. By 2025 they see 70 year old customers looking like 25. They do not expect dramatic changes in fashion in terms of looks, yet production processes & consumption, buying experiences will be dramatically different. It will be an era of personalization, DIY pattern making, scanning cubicles (cf. full body scanners by Eyetronics, see also here) etc.
Bodanis sees a possible pitfall in the variance-model, in the sense that people tend to wish to belong to a group. As such, the only way to mass-market such a mass-customization model in fashion would be by allowing for thematic approaches (e.g. common traits across variance in terms of cuts, colours, patterns). Beyond that he sees two types of shopping experiences split by the female factor (wife-chooses-for-husband-stores + more interactive stores for women). The openness of the model makes for the situation that even if designers run out of ideas, their products can still be successfull since customers enter the loop at the creative point as well.
Gaye sees many opportunities in the notion of ‘impermanence’, ‘disposability’. It becomes truly interesting when intelligent fabrics will become mainstream, fabrics that can communicate with each other and with our bodies (cf. inject vitamins, check vital functions etc.).
Cochrane sees programmability as the big plus giving people more freedom to change designs themselves. He mentions the idea of people renting out the back of their t-shirts as advertising space for companies.
Mobile phone industry
Padmasree Warrior (CTO Motorola) sketches the future of the mobile phone as a device that will morph itself to suit your needs (entertain, protect, connect).
Already it is growing into a device that knows its user’s social circle, personal preferences, etc. As such it is an extension of our persona. Motorola focuses on the inherent human need to connect which they expect is there to stay. How we do so will change however. New materials and techniques will allow shapeshifting, colour-changing … things now possible in the digital realm only, but which in time can become a feature of anything physical. Also modes of interaction will become richer, think: e.g. gesture, talk, proactiveness etc. Think about the future, about people’s first phone experience being mobile and ask yourself how it changes applications (now they see Tanzanian farmers use sms to check and discuss market price of their product, fishermen stay in touch to anticipate upon weather conditions and plan, etc. ) Motorola placed hybrid wind-solar powered mobile base station in Namibia to connect remote areas beyond physical/financial reach of fixed lines.
Cochrane notes that mobile phones will be your passport, your medical records, your access key, your bank account etc. You will be fully connected. Barriers can disappear: no more customs, no more ticket-desks/-checks, no more cash register … the system will take care of it automatically.
Bodanis feels that ‘always on’, ‘always connected’ eats away at your empty time which you need to ponder, to reflect, to think things over, etc. Being always connected makes you merely a better consumer, but less so a better human. All the functionality mobile phones are envisaged to amass brings about extreme levels of dependence. In terms of new wishful possibilities, Bodanis imagines to be able Google by thought, through a mobile phone that picks up brainwaves. Suppose 1-2% of people in the world would have this and the enormous power that would give them, he notes. He looks forward to a personal bubble/shield to regain control over his life.
Gaye points to the fact that the ‘phone’ -label is limiting as to what the functionality as well as form-factor will be like. Phones will be worn (no longer shaver-like device in hand), they will be like an earclip just before they become implants.
Quality of life
Richard Little, managing director Jenton International Ltd. was originally in the packaging industry, but the company kept on innovating. A while back they developed a microwave oven-like appliance which could kill bugs in a bottle via ultraviolet light (cf. Philips’ tap). Next came a smaller wallmounted system, the GRU-V, which kills bugs in the air (mrsa, influenza, tbc, etc.) also using ultraviolet light. The device uses rfid to energize sensors for measurement. After that came the idea of a handheld measurement tool, with a pda-like form factor.
They now look to move beyond external hardware tools straight into the body. Prof. Kevin Warwick of the University of Reading’s cybernetics lab affirms the possibility to miniaturize the components, such as the RFID chips and the sensors, so that they can be implants.
Warwick goes on to show a remote controlled robotic hand and a face, explaining the possibilities implants offer for telepresence. He notes that in the future ‘your body is where the internet can take you’: a robot can be your distance-representative at an overseas meeting.
Cochrane notes that implanting chips in people is already very big business (cf. artificial respirators, hearts, cochlear implants). Although he sees plenty of potential, he would advise the company to partner up with a big player who can scale up to market and mass produce whatever they come up with (economies of scale).
Bodanis mentions how small, passionate companies can often move faster than many big players. They do not need to provide 3 years-ahead estimates before they get approval from top management to move on.
Gaye connects the healthcare-related solutions to quality-of-life and ageing. Our lifespan as humans is changing rapidly, we already have the nutritional information to be able to live to a 140 but it is about not suffering in the meantime (quality of life).
Zero emission vehicles
Julian Wilford & Evert Guertsen from the Nice Car Company (+ Daniel Thielemans CEO Fortis Bank) talk about zero emission vehicles: small, light, quiet, clean city transport for everyone.
Working in the car industry, Evert has been aware of the technical capability of electric vehicles for a long time (cf. who killed the electric car), but he saw the business opportunity arrive only 2 years ago. London’s congestion charge (zero emission vehicles get exemption) is helping to win people over. He now looks at a market in London for 1000 cars/year.
Evert notes that currently 80% of EU car trips is less than 3kms, 90% is less than 15km.
The general impression of the futurologist panel is that it will take a few more generations of electric vehicles to get it all right in terms of technology, performance but also of driving experience (note: perhaps they did not see the Tesla roadster yet). Cochrane notes that even though the cars are electric, the electricity they use needs to be generated and this is still generally not eco-friendly at all (cf. think about whole chain). He it more likely for young people to accept the technology and jokes that it might help to put in speakers which makes sports-car noise to win people over.The real breakthrough in terms of a better driving experience will be once cars will be driving themselves (cf. the race is on) instead of people. “Once you get people out of the control loops everything improves”.
Bodanis sees plenty of opportunities for hydrogen (note: Purdue researchers find new hydrogen production technique) and hybrids. Gaye refers to emotional experience of buying a car (vs. other modes of transport).
Sports stadiums experience
Rod Sheard, HOK sport architecture (cf. Wembley stadium) foresees more satisfying buildings by 2025. He puts things in perspective by noting that although new sports facilities are expensive, the players on the field are often worth more than the buildings.
In the future fabrics (structural fabrics) will be ubiquitously present in architecture. Already now they are experimenting with plastics so clear you cannot see they are there. Think of economic, intelligent, flexible cladding of buildings, enabling buildings to change their ‘skin’ to the suit environment, time of year, event … The intrinsic form of buildings is unlikely to change much according to Sheard, yet environmental sustainability is already becoming a pervasive focus throughout the industry. Buildings are increasingly seen and designed as harvesters of energy instead of energy consuming objects.
People are learning that big sports facilities such as stadiums can regenerate urban areas as they stimulate people to come together. Many ask them to be placed as close to the city center as possible.
Cochrane notes that it will become interesting to see the shift from stadiums where human gladiators play to those where artificial players populate the field as well and where spectators can become part of playing field by interacting with the artificial players.
Bodanis notes that in this respect even Roman times had more audience participation than we generally have now (cf. thumbs up, thumbs down).
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