Change often starts with a ripple before it turns into a wave washing over us. Spotting signals of change early – when they are still murmur on the sideline – often means a strategic advantage, if one can interpret the signal correctly, anticipate and act upon it successfully.

We dive into the world of weak signals together with Elina Hiltunen, a Finnish weak signals hunter and discuss both theory and practice in this fascinating realm of futures studies.

Elina was also one of the keynote speakers at the European Futurists Conference in Lucerne last October. (more…)

Uncertainties make for a variety of possible futures. Add to that expectations and a bunch of competitive people and you have a nice set of ingredients for a market or betting game. We already wrote about the Long Now Foundation‘s Long Bets and Fabrica‘s Stock exchange of Visions. For those of you hungry for more, check out Predictify, the Foresight Exchange or Foresight Markets.

Prediction markets are no new phenomenon, but with such high public interest in wisdom-of-the-crowds, the pop-up frequency of new initiatives is on the rise as well. Check out Mercury’s Blog dedicated to prediction markets.

Once again scientists, this time members of the Union of Concerned Scientists, expressed their worries about the possible dangers posed by farming crops which are genetically modified to grow medicines or chemical substances. The prospect of large scale, molecular farming aka pharming awakens fears of normal crops and gm crops mixing with unknown consequences feared disastrous.

Solutions proposed include cave pharming, i.e. molecular farming inside controlled, sealed-off artificial environments inside caves (see here).

Via environmentalgraffiti.com

According to an AP article, Disney – the company which invented the fantastic term imagineering – has decided to relaunch their House of the Future concept. Originally set up in 1957, sponsored by Monsanto, the original house closed in 1967. A new 5000 square foot home is in the making.

“The $15 million Innoventions Dream Home is a collaboration of The Walt Disney Co., Microsoft Corp., Hewlett-Packard Co., software maker LifeWare and homebuilder Taylor Morrison.”

Many cities around the world, yet also companies such as Microsoft, Philips, HP, etc. , have set up houses of the future in the past decennia. In Brussels and Amsterdam, for example, the Living tomorrow initiative showcases how we might come to live, work, play in the future according to technologies from several companies.

In the Disney case, focus will lay on projecting visitors into a lifestyle of the future rather than giving them the traditional tradeshow look ahead.

“Visitors will experience the look of tomorrow by watching Disney actors playing a family of four preparing for a trip to China.”

Reading up on the Disney initiative, it seems that the imagination of the future in such settings keeps falling back on the same stereotypical ideas such as the automated kitchen of the 60 etc.

Image via Yesterland.
Via Wired

Scarcity makes for economy, makes for politics, makes for geopolitical power, the world of energy plays the game mainstage these days and will continue to do so for a while.

Nevertheless, according to Exclusive-Analysis’ James Howarth over at OpenDemocracy.net, the Middle East is anticipating times at which oil might no longer be their main cashcow. In order to maintain their strategically powerful position in a world seeking oil/energy-independence, countries such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE etc. are diversifying their portfolios.

Aside from oil, a ‘gas OPEC‘ (an extended GECF) is already taking shape (cf. Iran, Russia, Qatar, Algeria cover 70% of the world’s gas reserves and 40% of output) but working along a different model of decisionmaking. Iran invests in nuclear power. Many would bet on solar energy to be the next big thing in countries with plenty of sun and desert, yet not all share that opinion/enthusiasm (see for example video on Energy Wars).

Not only on the production side, also on the consumption side the Middle East is changing . Although sitting on top of large reserves, the economic boom of for example the UAE, gives rise to ‘massive change’ projects such as Abu Dhabi’s $15bn Masdar, investing in building carbon neutral cities (e.g. Masdar city together with Foster+partners), the world’s largest hydrogen energy plant (a project together with BP), massive solar fields etc.

Via OpenDemocracy.net

Royal Dutch Shell, home to several scenario planning pioneers, takes another look into the future of energy and the related climate change challenge. In an open letter distributed in cooperation with Project Syndicate, CEO Jeroen van der Veer sees two major pathways to a possible future of a more sustainable energy mix (i.e. including wind, solar, hydro, bio and nuclear): the scramble way and the blueprints way. In any case, the shift is necessary as it is foreseen that easily accessible oil and gas reserves will most likely not be able to keep up with demand after 2015. In a nutshell :

scramble scenario: nations hurry to secure their energy reserves, local coal & biofuels rise, policy makers basically sit back and wait until things go wrong as energy consumption and and greenhouse-gas emissions are not mitigated, result: spikes & volatility in energy prices. Sounds familiar?

blueprints scenario: new coalitions emerge to tackle energy-, economy- and environment-related challenges together, local authorities/policymakers, industry players and R&D/innovators work together, national governments adjust their instruments (taxes, incentives, standards, etc.) to help curb things in the right direction (especially in terms of buildings, vehicles & transport fuels), at a world level harmonization increases, cars run increasingly on electricity & hydrogen, CO2 is increasingly captured and stored underground

Shell sees the blueprints scenario as the best move in terms of the energy, economy, environment equation, but does mention some requirements for it to succeed.

The approach taken in the blueprints scenario follows a path similar to that in transition management initiatives (Pantopicon is involved in several such projects at the moment, e.g. Plan C), in which common challenges are explored and ideals shared, new cross-boundary coalitions are formed bottom up, innovative pathways to the ideal are explored, experiments are set up, to explore not one but a series of possible solutions and spark innovation, etc. Succesful solutions will be scaled up gradually through society-wide capacity building.

“The world faces a long voyage before it reaches a low-carbon energy system. Companies can suggest possible routes to get there, but governments are in the driver’s seat. And governments will determine whether we should prepare for bitter competition or a true team effort.”

Via Alex over at Worldchanging.org

In your car, in your furniture, in your electronic appliances, your tools and kitchen utensils, in your paperwork, in packaging, in food, in your body … printable, biodegradable, implantable, edible … microchips of every kind are becoming – in some context they already are – pervasive.

More than for real computation – e.g. health-related ‘labs-on-a-chip’ technology – most microchips are/will probably be there to render the world more ‘addressable’.  They (e.g. RFID tags) will allow us to identify, count, localize and keep track of our ‘stuff’ (fyi: IPv6 allows for 6.5 x 10²³ IP addresses per square meter on the surface of our planet). As space seems a keyword in this equation, it is time which is even more central to this whole discussion. As Bruce Sterling already mentioned as he spoke of spimes, imagine a future in which you can trace items, components, etc. throughout their lifecycle, learn who or what they encountered where and at which moment. In other words, you will be able to know (and who knows, meet or speak to) the sheep that grew your sweater.

Obviously, who gets to know (and remember) what in which context remains up for debate. Enjoy this Washington Post article about some of the RFID developments in store for us and the possible dangers they pose.

Image from Businessweek features VeriChip
Via Washingtonpost.com

In line with some of the fictional design concepts some of the students in our futurelab/designatelier came up with, Philips preps to bring a tricorder-like future one step closer according to a NewScientist article. As lab-on-a-chip technology comes of age, we could soon be able to personally check the contents and quality of the food we intend to buy.

Imagine the consequences in terms of the way business is done, quality control and quality management procedures, etc. in a prosumer-culture, a reputation economy etc. What purpose will the label still serve? Which other, perhaps more subjective value sets, might we wish to equip our tricorder with? How will it affect scale of production? Will the number of target consumer groups explode?

IBM recently released its annual ‘five in five‘ list of 5 trends that have the potential to significantly change the way we live, work and play in the coming 5 years. A rough summary:

1. smart energy solutions will proliferate and make it easier to control one’s carbon footprint
2. driving will turn smart and more clean as well, thanks to intelligent traffic systems and car-road communication.
3. you will know (more about) what you eat as food is tracked and checked from field to plate.
4. your cell phone will become the control centre of your life: wallet, concierge, bank, shopping assistant, parking meter, …
5. doctor’s will gain enhanced insight into your body through hypersensitive sensor systems, intelligent connected diagnostic systems, etc.

Check out the video.

That the impact of such technologies available and operated at a large scale is/will be high is beyond doubt. Note however … whether it is the short 5 years time horizon or a biased US-centric point of view, most developments are already reality today (some even since a few years) in many places in Europe or Asia, albeit not always at a mainstream level of use.

While chipbased memory extensions and other ‘stimulating’ brain implants might be a few years off, mind doping is big business already today.

“Despite the potential side effects, academics, classical musicians, corporate executives, students and even professional poker players have embraced the drugs to clarify their minds, improve their concentration or control their emotions.”

Brain enhancers based on beta-blockers, ADHD medication etc. are current day’s medicinal coffee for a significant percentage of students trying to improve mental performance and stay focussed for longer periods of time during exams etc.

Our world in which one’s status depends ever more on one’s mental lifting power (cf. knowledge economy, etc.) is a major contextual catalyst in the race for the viagra of mind doping drugs, e.g. a memory pill. Top performing ‘athletes’ in this context are no longer but sportsmen, but musicians, businessmen, daytraders, researchers, etc.

How is it changing our society? How is it changing the way we work, live, love?

Via Los Angeles Times

Reputation plays a major role in business and society in various ways. It has always done so, and continues to do so till this day. Yet as information on people and their activities becomes pervasive and pervasively accessible through online resources, reputation spreads and evolves – as does its value and valuation – at an unprecedented rate. Hr-managers google prospective employees, community-reputation is valued higher than diplomas in various areas, brands gather opinions people voice online concerning their products and services, companies pop up to monitor, hype or ‘guard’ people’s reputation online. What does the future hold?

Yale Law School held a symposium on the topic the other week, focusing on a set of 4 core themes:

1. Making Your Name Online
2. Privacy and Reputation Protection
3. Reputation and Information Quality
4. Ownership of Cyber-Reputation. 

Among others, two friends of ours participated in the discussion, i.e. Michel Bauwens from the P2P foundation (read here for more on Michel’s arguments) and Rishab Ghosh of UNU-Merit (read here for a starter on Rishab’s cooking pot market model in which reputation plays a central role).

OK, so it’s out in the open now … and it’s private business.

Provide a saliva sample and for $999 23andme (started and owned by Anne Wojcicki, wife of Google founder and CTO Sergey Brin) screens your dna and sends you back a full report.

“For $999 you will receive a complete DNA scan that reveals your ancestry, what your risk factor for developing certain diseases is, and will keep you up-to-date with the latest medical advancements that directly affect you.”

And then the questions start to pop up: do we want to know? do we want to know everything? what if you don’t want to know but your mother, sister, daughter does? should a private company be doing this? who has, should have, should not have access to the data? how secure is the data? what could be done with it in good hands, in bad hands? what’s the next step?

Via ZDNet

For decades, pioneers like the University of Maastricht’s Department of Medicine and several others around the world have been using simulation patients (professional actors simulating illnesses and patient behavior) to train medicine students. The future might bring yet another alternative however.

Not only highly detailed, immersive computer simulations, but also robots are changing the field of medical simulation-based learning. Lifelike robot patients such as the one in use at the Kaiser Permanente Medical Center in Redwood City (USA) are programmed to display a range of symptoms, breathe, talk, groan, maintain a pulse and even urinate.

Also in other medical fields the trend is catching on. Japanese dentists are about to be trained by means of a humanoid robot patient able to listen to instruction, to frown, to say ‘ouch’ or ‘it hurts’ when the dental drill hits a nerve or the patient is uncomfortable. (thanks to Kristof for letting us know)

Image by AFP for Yahoo News

We have almost reached the end of the year which means list-time … Our fellow future-gazers over at SocialTechnologies asked themselves the following question:

“What will likely be the most important scientific and technological breakthroughs with significant commercial value and impacts on the lives of consumers out to 2025?”

In order to answer it they put together a global focus group of experts in the areas of business, technology and innovation, including members of the Association of Professional Futurists, Tekes, Duke University, Hasbro, Worldwatch, General Motors, Shell, Johnson Controls, Oxford University, and others.

The following list of twelve was the result:

1. personalized medicine
2. distributed energy
3. pervasive computing
4. nanomaterials
5. biomarkers for health
6. biofuels
7. advanced manufacturing
8. universal water
9. carbon management
10. engineered agriculture
11. security and tracking
12. advanced transportation

Via ChangeWaves

Newsweek’s cover article features Amazon founder Jeff Bezos on the future of reading, covering Amazon’s goal to conquer the last bastion of analog culture, i.e. the book.  Amazon’s soon to be launched, always-connected ebook reader Kindle aims to be the “iPod of reading”.The ebook dream stays alive and it advances … yet doubts remain whether this product form factor is the killer one. From a user-centred (interaction/experience design) point of view, regardless of the many fantastic interactive features we miss in traditional, printed books, one cannot help but miss the physical pleasure of flipping a page, of feeling the different textures of paper, its light-reflective quality and flexibility, its smell, the various sizes and coverings in which books come etc. in all of today’s ebook readers. Nevertheless, new generations of epaper around the corner look promising in this respect.Update: see Kindle’s official page over at Amazon.com.