Which better way to jumpstart the year than to have another look at personal aviation initiatives (see also earlier posts here and here). The online buzz seems to prove that not even a crisis can silence those dreaming about personal aviation vehicles (PAV’s): e.g. Mirror Image Aerospace’s Skywalker VTOL, the PAL-V. Urban Aeronautics‘ X-Hawk does away with the external propellors, after all a much lamented nuisance for VTOL PAV’s in crowded urban environments.

A lot of effort seems to go into VTOL (vertical take-off and landing) configurations, as can be seen in for example the video of this Buzz Lightyear-like low-noise electric VTOL PAV. Yet, there is also the Spiral Duct ESTOL Concept. NASA apparently also took inspiration from Transformers and shows how a car can be turned into a personal air vehicle (see video).  For more PAV-videos, check out NASAPav.

Although a few years old,  the article entitled “These legs are made for walking” (Discover Magazine) presents a concise overview of five visionaries and how they see beyond vehicles as we know them, first of all by questioning the assumptions underlying them today. James Kuffner (Head of Planning and Autonomy Lab at the Robotics Institute of Carnegie Mellon University) for example asks “why wheels?”, his lab colleague Chris Urmson asks “why a driver?”. Brian Seeley (eye surgeon and founder of the CAFE (Comparative Aircraft Flying Efficiency) Foundation, check out their blog here) shares thoughts on flying cars, while Robert Thompson (director of the Bleier Center for Television and Popular Culture at Syracuse University) questions the US’ infatuation with gas-guzzling cars and conjures ecochic pint-size autos with moss roofs. Peter ‘X-Prize‘ Diamandis thinks about truly personalized cars, i.e. shape your own carbon-nanotube impregnated composite bodies.

Image: still from NASAPav’s video

As car manufacturers shift away from oil and towards electricity to power our future vehicles, a new race is on. The target this time: lithium, basis for the lithium-ion batteries to be found in everything from electric vehicles, to mobile phones, cellphones, laptops, anti-depressives etc.  The place: Chile (for now), Bolivia (next) … The salt lakes near Uyuni in Bolivia are believed to contain an estimated 28 millions tons of lithium, or 90% of the world’s reserve according to experts. The car industry currently runs on 16.000 tons per year. As the production and demand of electric cars ramp up, the demand for lithium is expected to be anywhere between 54.000 and 500.000 tons per year. At such rates, estimates of shortages starting from as early as 2015 are no exception as automobile, pharma, ICT and many other industries will be fishing in the same pond for the same type of fish.

Although lithium is no fuel (it is not consumed through usage) and lithium-ion batteries ‘can be recycled’ (note: they do contain substances harmful to the environment in case they should end up in landfills and pollute water reserves) other worries arise concerning the socio-economic impact of lithium mining activities in the aforementioned countries.

On a more fundamental level – a more philosophical one if you wish – nature and history teach us that monoculture is generally a bad idea (cf. resilience). So whether we like it or not, we need to (re)learn to think in terms of a mix, of diversity once again.

Image courtesy of PeriodicTable.com

In a special report The World Future Society shares 20 trends and breakthroughs – recent forecasts from WFS members and its magazine, The Futurist – which they consider “likely to affect your work, your investments and your family” between 2010 and 2050.

• The Race for Genetic Enhancements Will Be What the Space Race Was in the 20th Century
• Water Becomes the New Oil
• WiMAX Networks Will Soon Create Country-Wide Wireless Internet Access
• By 2025, the Worldwide Average Life-Span Will Be Extended by One year Per Year
• Bioviolence Becomes a Greater Threat
• Invention Becomes Automated
• Japan Dominates the Race for Personal Robots
• Holographic 3-D TV
• The Holy Grail of Computers Becomes a Reality
• Electric Cars Become Fully Practical by 2020
• Religion Growing in China while Secularism Grows in the Middle East
• New Oil from Old Wells
• Green Gold: Algae’s Huge Potential as Biofuel
• Nanotechnology May Alter the Value of Diamonds and Other Precious Commodities
• The Millennial Generation Will Have Major Impacts on Society
• Quantum Computers Revolutionalize Information Around 2021
• Breakthrough DOUBLES Solar Energy Output
• Consumers Will Take Active Roles in Inventing New Products and Services
• Virtual Education to Enter the Mainstream by 2015
• Genetic Research May Soon Conquer Most Inherited Diseases

Medicine and technology companies are working hard to restore people’s vision, hearing or other senses or provide artificial aids and prosthetics to replace them. Yet what about new or enhanced senses? The animal world is full of examples of how nature has endowed them with the most amazing ways of perceiving the world around them. Ants can see polarized light, starfish have their arms covered with light sensitive cells, pigeons can detect sounds as low as 0.1hz, some fish can detect L-serine (skin chemical in mammals) dilluted to 1 part per billion, a silkworm moth can detect pheromones up to 11km away and in concentrations as low as 1 molecule of pheromone per 10¹⁷ molecules of air, the platypus has electric sensors in its bill able to detect 0.05 microvolts, etc. (hungry for more? see here)

Several years ago Osnabrück cognitive scientist Peter König developed the feelSpace belt, a compass like buzzing belt (since then a hit amongst the DIY crowd), equiping people with a ’sense of direction’ much like birds have one. Users of the belt felt like the prosthetic became a part of their normal sensory apparatus. The trick lies in synesthesia (check out Terri Timely’s masterful video on the phenomenon). By making ‘the new sense’ talk to the old ones, the latter can translate its ‘feelings’ to the brain in a language the brain already understands; in the case of the feelSpace belt: touch.

The latest issue of the wonderful Good features David Pescovitz, BoingBoing editor and fellow futuregazer over at the Institute for the Future, explains the growing amount of research and development in digital synesthesia :

my colleagues and I have spent the last few months exploring the notion that “everything is programmable,” or will be soon. The idea is that emerging technologies—from pervasive computers to synthetic biology—are making it possible to program our bodies and our worlds to desired specifications. Increasingly, we are looking at the entire world through a computational lens.

Pescovitz pays homage to Paul Bach-y-Rita, the Mexico-born professor in neurobiology and rehabilitation who was a pioneer in the field of sensory substitution, who once said “We see with our brains, not with our eyes.” Pescovitz mentions several examples of digital synesthesia projects, such as: Wicab (founded by Bach-y-Rita) did amazing work on BrainPort, an attempt to create a vision prosthetic that translates images from a video camera into tactile responses on the tongue. “Users often report the sensation as pictures that are painted on the tongue with champagne bubbles.” In Tel Aviv is investigating ways in which cells in plants respond to light as a way to design “seeing skin”. Hello biomimicry!

Imagine a world of bodyshops filled with plugins and wearables to extend our sensory apparatus. To some a transhumanist’s wet dream, to others a mere natural evolution in the sense of media as extensions of man (McLuhan), to yet others yet another digital divide.

Via Wired and Good

When bringing possible futures to life and engaging an audience, many tend to resort to multimedia in its most tech-inspired/driven variant, while from a storytelling perspective “the art of acting” or theatre has so much more to offer. After some first experiences of our own in using theater as a way of communicating the future and triggering debate, we are definitely hungry for more. Yet our interest in theater goes beyond its utilitarian value in exploring and envisioning the future.

Theatre comes in many flavours and the Dutch theater company Theater AdHoc defies categorization in a lovely way. Join us on an inspiring trip through the mind and heart of its founder Jan van den Berg.

(more…)

The Apollo mission gave us pictures of our planet from space. Finally we could behold our planet from a distance. We could look at it as an object on the table in front of us, within reach, and as we did our planetary awareness grew. Confronted with several planetary challenges now, our planetary conscience is now gradually shaping up as well. Aside from looking at our planet, NASA’s Earth Observation System (EOS) reads our planet through satellite data. Access to this information is a prerequisite for learning to understand our planet better. Now we can not only look at our planet, Prof. Shin-ichi Takemura’s amazing Tangible Earth project allows us to interact with our planet and the data emerging from it by touch.

In view of coming up with solutions to the challenges we are facing, sensing our planet has become sheer necessity. We increasingly do so in real time as well: within mouseclick reach we check webcams on the other side of the planet, we can download data from weatherstations around the world, etc.
Until recently, the sensing world was pretty much the playing field of NASA and the likes. The future promises to be more open in this respect (see  also open source efforts such as GSN) and consequently much larger – and since we’re talking data: more powerful. Years ago, in describing his wish of an Earth Witness Project, our fellow future explorer Jamais Cascio already pointed to opportunities opened up by the convergence between labs on chips, mobile phones and sharing networks to create an open global sensor network.

Now several companies and grassroots initiatives are preparing to put technology in the hands of citizens. Already we can deduce a lot of information from information we leak by the mere usage of our communication technology, as Carlo Ratti’s Senseable cities team at MIT shows us. Nokia’s Eco Sensor Concept plans to make us more active participants in the game. Imagine millions of always-on, networked tricorder-like devices sensing our planet : local data + networks + sensemaking = global intelligence. Hewlett-Packard is developing the equivalent of a globally distributed stethoscope (CeNSE) to monitor our planet’s health, and look to nanotechnology as an enabling technology. “The motivation for this work is realising and understanding the planet is sick and the disease is us.”, says Dr Stan Williams of HP’s Information & Quantum Systems Laboratory.

An often forgotten challenge is how to use tech already out there to turn them into sensors for our health and that of our planet. Think about the tech equivalent of using ‘useless’ bath-tub ducks which fell off a ship, to study ocean currents.

As systems theory, cybernetics and complexity science have shown us: what we humans see as chaos is often nature’s notion of order. As such the terms tend to become confusing. Even in a socio-cultural context, ‘normality’ or what we consider to be the ‘norms’ we live by, are based upon agreement and/or knowledge available. Changes in either one of these contextual parameters, shifts the norm including the systems built or grown around them. Looking at either the past or the future, leads people to see things in contrast with the present. As such differences become apparent and we become aware of certain assumptions underlying the systems we live by, assumptions, ‘norms’ we took for granted.

As scientific discoveries further our understanding our norms often shift in response to the new knowledge attained.

A nice example of this can be found in a study recently published by Nature Medicine in which a research team from the Catholic University of Leuven (Belgium) shows that “most early human embryos carry chromosomal anomalies”. More specifically, they discovered “that genomes of embryos are unstable and share features with tumors.”

Prof. Joris Vermeesch from the Center of Human Genetics at Leuven University Hospitals explains:

“It was known that some chromosomal anomalies occurred in some embryos, but the surprising discovery is that the type, complexity, and frequency of those chromosomal rearrangements is much higher than anticipated. Our results show that those aberrations are not restricted to embryos derived from couples with fertility problems, but are a common feature of regular embryogenesis”

The findings are expected to have a significant impact on preimplantation genetic testing and strategies to improve human fertility.

In 1970 the futurologist Alvin Toffler published Future shock … a book about signs of the time and of times ahead, times in which the (increasing) speed of scientific and technological progress oversteps the pace of the human heartbeat. It becomes too much for many to digest and a sense of discomfort rather than techno-enabled comfort sets in.

Few people remember – hey, I wasn’t even born yet – that in 1972, a documentary version was made of the bestselling book, narrated by Orson Welles. Although over 30years old, there remains a contemporary relevance to the story being told. Some might even see a few parallels between “the future shock” phenomenon and “the singularity”.

Sit back and enjoy the movies (1, 2, 3, 4, 5).

Via Smashing Telly

Liberman & Trope, two researchers from the Departments of Psychology of Tel Aviv and New York University respectively, recently published an article in Science magazine, entitled “The Psychology of Transcending the Here and Now” .

“People directly experience only themselves here and now but often consider, evaluate, and plan situations that are removed in time or space, that pertain to others’ experiences, and that are hypothetical rather than real. People thus transcend the present and mentally traverse temporal distance, spatial distance, social distance, and hypotheticality. We argue that this is made possible by the human capacity for abstract processing of information. We review research showing that there is considerable similarity in the way people mentally traverse different distances, that the process of abstraction underlies traversing different distances, and that this process guides the way people predict, evaluate, and plan near and distant situations.”

Robin Hanson over at OvercomingBias reflects upon this fascinating topic in his blog articles Abstract/Distant Future Bias and A Tale of Two Tradeoffs. Check them out!

Via TheLongNow

Like any truly disruptive technology, the web changed the world in myriad ways. Can you remember times before the internet? Surely the medical world can. Before the internet the amount of patients showing up at the doctor’s with a binder full of ‘mediknowledge’ downloaded from the internet and demanding answers, challenging the knowledge of the expert, was definitely smaller than in today’s world. For a long time medical and pharmaceutical knowledge was the domain of a select group of people and organizations. They were the one and only point of reference. This has all changed. As access to specialist information and specialist tools increases, many of the walls separating the medical world and the rest of us come tumbling down.

In the ‘old’ model, research in terms of diagnostics or cures, was – and often still is – ruled by the cult of numbers. Many rare diseases are considered too costly in view of limited statistical impact, hence considered ‘economically  uninteresting’  to investigate, leaving groups of individuals with rare diseases or developing countries out in the cold. 

Wired magazine tells the story of Hugh Rienhoff. Reminiscent of Lorenzo’s oil, the article shows the admirable and moving quest of a parent in search for an explanation for his daughter’s genetic problems and the difficult relationship with the inner culture of the medical world as he pursues his journey. Rienhoff launched a website mydaughersdna.org to share his experience with parents fighting the same battles, exchanging insights gained, problems encountered, etc.

The medical and pharmaceutical world is changing … from within and under the influence of outside pressure. Increasing numbers of individuals start their own research journeys thereby co-setting the agenda, the pricetag for full-genome sequencing is falling, increasingly medical cases are being documented in – many times open – online shared databases (e.g. DECIPHER) leading to exponential increases in insights gained, pharmacogenetics promise the arrival of truly personalized medicine, previously specialist lab technologies are coming within reach of individuals.

Like with any opening up of previously closed ecologies of information, there is the issue of quality of information and interpretation on which ‘knowledge’ depends, the spectrum with on the one end experts, on the other quacks. Could a p2p model work in the medical world? Especially in complex areas such as genetics it already is leading to massive change. Could a more open model of knowledge exchange benefit the medical profession and humanity in general? Surely, there are advantages to be gained, yet also requiring new mechanisms to be put/grown in place and new challenges to be tackled.

Yesterday’s news headlines put cancer in pole position as the primary cause of death in the Netherlands. Amongst families of cancer-patients, the frustrating question of ‘why on earth, with all the amazing technological capabilities we have and the dozens of daily new insights gained, do people still need to die of cancer?’ is like an ever-returning mantra. To some in the field it’s a lack of knowledge which prevents us from major progress, according to others the paradigms by which we investigate cancer, describe it, categorize and treat it are flawed and we are in desperate need of a paradigm shift.

A recent cover story in Wired Magazine “The Truth about Cancer“ urges to increase efforts in detecting cancer early instead of trying to fight it later. Early detection could increase survival rates to 90% according to some. 

TechnologyReview looks at new developments in treatment – which could be classified as regenerative medicine - which train the body to recognize the killer cells as cancer and trigger the immune system to fight them off once again.

“One of cancer’s cleverest tricks is its ability to hide from the immune system. A new approach to cancer treatment called immunotherapy could spare patients at least some of the grueling battery of chemotherapy treatments by retraining the body’s own defenders–the cells of the immune system–to recognize and destroy tumors. Now researchers at Harvard University have developed a simple way to do this inside the body: a polymer implant attracts and trains immune-system cells to go after cancer.”

The fight against cancer or for knowledge about it, does not only take place in medical labs or our bodies. The known or presumed influence of environmental factors on the occurrence of cancers, also leads to efforts to geotag cancer occurrences and correlating their spatial spread with other layers of knowledge using GIS systems (e.g. NCI, Turkish effort)

Image courtesy of National Cancer Institute

The Rotman School of Management dedicates its winter issue (pdf) to wicked problems, a concept not unknown to futuregazers. Jeff Conklin of the CogNexus Institute once characterized wicked problems as follows:

1. The problem is not understood until after formulation of a solution.
2. Stakeholders have radically different world views and different frames for understanding the problem.
3. Constraints and resources to solve the problem change over time.
4. The problem is never solved.

Aside from an interview with him, the magazine is chock-full of insightful articles on topics such as Confronting the World’s Most Important Strategic Challenges: The End of Oil, Strategy as a Wicked Problem, Peter Senge et al. on The Next Industrial Imperative: The 80-20 Challenge, Creativity, Improvisation and Organizations, The Designful Company, IDEO’s Fred Dust and Ilya Prokopoff on Designing Systems at Scale, Managerial Algorithmics: Thinking Strategically About Thinking Strategically, Artistry for the Strategist. Muhammad Yunus shares his ‘point of view’. There are Q&A’s with Prof. William Duggan on strategic intuition, reverse brainstorming etc., with Prof. John Broome on the ethics of climate change, with Prof. Sarah Kaplan on the origin of our cognitive frames, with Nigel Cross on the differences between abstract and concrete thinking, with Prof. Lucy Kimbell on the importance of a ‘design attitude’, with Prof. Dolly Chugh on the human foibles of bounded willpower, bounded awareness and bounded self-interest, with Prof. Ingo Walter on new alternatives for microfinance institutions, with Cary Fowler on protecting the world’s food supply via the Global Crop Diversity Trust. Prof. Heather Fraser shares insights on tackling wicked problems in healthcare.

In other words: an issue to devour.

NewScientist recently reported on some amazing new discoveries using advanced fMRI technologies (see also here). The team of Yukiyasu Kamitani at Japan’s ATR’s Computational Neuroscience Laboratories …

“[...] has used an image of brain activity taken in a functional MRI scanner to recreate a black-and-white image from scratch. “By analysing the brain signals when someone is seeing an image, we can reconstruct that image,” says Kamitani. This means that the mind reading isn’t limited to a selection of existing images, but could potentially be used to “read off” anything that someone was thinking of, without prior knowledge of what that might be.”

What if one could use it to communicate with people with lock-in syndrome? What if ‘design thinking’ or ‘thinking a design’ would be enough to prototype? What if future privacy laws would include the privacy of one’s mind and thoughts? It is not hard to image many uses … yet also abuses of such a technology as it matures.

Image courtesy of Neuron/Cell Press via NewScientist

In 1975 Ernest Callenbach published Ecotopia (revisited by NY Times here), a novel which quickly gained cult status (see also video). Three years later, fascinated by the book, architect Craig Hodgetts (of Hodgetts+Fung Design) crafted a set of amazing drawings depicting some of the scenes and concept envisioned in the book, eager to produce Ecotopia for the big screen. Imagine retro-yet-ever-so-futuristic balloon generators over San Francisco Bay, solar-powered high-speed mag-lev trains, helium-filled mylar balloons to lift and orient a wind-powered generator, …

Callenbach said it right: “It is so hard to imagine anything fundamentally different from what we have now, but without these alternate visions, we get stuck on dead center.” 

Inspired by TheArchitectsNewspaperBlog

… ironing shirts, wasting energy, shortening the lifespan of your shirt’s cloth. The Swedish brand Eton shirts has developed a coatingless cotton-fibre which returns to its original shape after washing. In fact bodyheat is enough to iron your shirt as you wear it. The fibre responds to heat – not unlike shape memory alloys) – to maintain its form.

Let’s extrapolate such a development for a second: imagine a world in which no shirts need to be ironed any longer. Consequences: significant decrease of energy usage since irons no longer need to be heated, presses are no longer necessary, thereby also increasing the lifespan of the shirt since the cloth is spared from several aggressive interactions. Combine that with a waterless washing machine such as Electrolux’ Airwash system. In terms of saving the environment. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how energy- & eco-efficient the production of the special cotton fibre (and the rest of its lifecycle) is before we can truly assess its impact. From a socio-economic perspective however – like any technological development which renders human (inter)action obsolete – the no-iron cotton fibre – if used on a large scale – might put extra stress on or obliterate ironing shops.

On a higher level of abstraction: think of all the kind of products which nowadays, because of their systemic or material makeup, require labour (implying usage of all kinds of other resources) in order to remain functional, usable etc. Windows need to be washed, houses need to be heated or cooled, etc.

What if … changes at the material/systemic level of these products, which nearly all of us use, could make these ‘wasteful cycles’ of energy. If employed at a large scale, effects (both positive and negative) of these changes can often be exponential in nature as they work their way through the chain of reactions linked to the lifecycle of the product. They alter the system of their ‘ecology’, their context (whether bio-, techno- or homosphere). Glass can be self-cleaning, houses can go without or using a minimum of heating/cooling energy, etc.