At the outbreak of any major crisis, there is always the question of ‘why didn’t we see this coming?’. The financial crisis? Oh, many saw it coming alright … yet few managed to make others believe a meltdown was not only possible, but most likely, and none managed to mobilize believers-decision-makers to act upon their belief to an extent that would have prevented the crisis from happening (or the latter proved insufficiently equipped/organized to do so).

Adam Gordon of FutureStudio reflects upon the relationships between belief & action in foresight contexts in his most recent post over at The Future Savvy Journal. He refers to a letter from Peter Schwartz explaining the added value of scenario thinking in assessing and acting upon future challenges. They help to keep various options open, alternatives about what the future might be like, hence serve as a tool-to-think-through & to learn, and pave the way for action. According to Peter Schwartz:

“The problem is that decision-makers believe that they are forced to pick one right answer: the most likely scenario. Their approach to decision-making does not afford them the opportunity to consider apparently low probability but highly consequential scenarios. The answer, therefore, to the “believe” half of the question is a decision-making process that considers several scenarios: compelling stories about alternative futures that incorporate the analysis of “outliers” and describe three or four plausible paths forward.
Good scenarios force decision-makers to challenge their own assumptions and reconsider what is possible. As a result, they can take seriously those scenarios that seemed less likely at first, but whose plausibility increases over time.”

It is also a people matter in the sense that to make radical, systemic changes happen, various roles or skills are needed (e.g. to understand the complexity of the challenge at hand, to network and form the necessary alliances to tackle it, to draft innovative solutions, to scale and sell these, to monitor progress and motivate etc.). Seldomly these are found in one person or one type of person, even one group of people only. Also because of this aspect, the action part of the equation of systemic change is a complex one and no one, easy recipe can be prescribed to orchestrate massive change as such. Nevertheless, insight in these matters is growing, both academically and practically, which will hopefully serve as well in the many futures and societal challenges ahead of us.

Crossposted on Kashklash.net

The Methuselah Foundation, chaired by British gerontologist dr Aubrey de Grey (check out his TED video here), has recently launched their new website.

“The Methuselah Foundation is a non-profit medical charity dedicated to extending healthy human life. The Foundation’s strategy will accelerate progress toward a comprehensive cure for age-related disease, disability, and suffering.

Aging is a thief that robs us of our most precious resource — the wisdom and experience embodied in every human life — even as it increases the burden on our strained healthcare systems. ”

Visitors can find a wealth of information on the fight against aging: articles, videos, blogs, prizes & challenges etc.

Indeed there are serious bets going on with respect to the future of aging. Steven Austad (University of Idaho ) bet $500m that someone will live to be 150 years old by 2150. S. Jay Olshansky (University of Illinois at Chicago School of Public Health) bet that 130 years is the top end of the human lifespan. Moreover, futurist and scenario-guru Peter Schwartz placed a long bet of $2000 against Melody K. Haller that “At least one human alive in the year 2000 will still be alive in 2150.”

In a post-9/11 world, the November issue of Monocle looks at the future of diplomacy and proposes a new design pattern for building embassies. Some of the key suggestions proposed:

• super secure: embrace advances in materials and technology to improve security – but don’t build a bunker
• do like the Danes: an embassy should be a showroom for a nation’s best brands and design
• better living: use your compound to sell a complete way of life
• 100% branded: the new embassy isn’t just competing with other countries but also the entire consumer landscape. Think H&M of foreign affairs
• get out there: the modern mission should re-engage with consumers, not just civil-servants
• signature branding: be unmistakable with your vernacular and choice of architect

What if indeed one would reassess the role of diplomatic presence in a country and have the physical presence reflect that role?

Also check out Monocle’s video here.

“In this nearly 27 minute video Bruce Sterling, a leading futurist, speaker, columnist and science fiction writer, shares his vision on where mobile is heading. Preaching his story from a somewhat unconventional place, the pulpit instead of the stage, he managed to silence the audience. Check the video to see what he had to say to the Mobile sinners.”

Via MobileMonday

At the inspiring Venice Architecture Biennale - this year’s edition curated by Aaron Betsky, former director of the NaI – the famous Dutch design studio Droog Design & KesselsKramer showcase S1NGLETOWN. 

S1NGLETOWN focuses on the world of contemporary singles. Its relevance is broad, as all of us are likely to belong to this group at some stage in our lives — and likely more than once. In fact, some sources predict that a third of people in developed countries will be living alone by 2026.

S1NGLETOWN is an exhibition that’s also a town, an abstract interpretation of a new kind of urban space. Visitors will be able to walk its streets and interact with its products and citizens, and view their homes.

The concept is a beautiful illustration of a persona-like approach, typecasting different types of singles and imaginatively describe their world, ways of living using their point of experience as a point of departure. Although designed in a beautiful, powerful yet fairly abstract way, one is fully immersed in this ‘view on the world’ being able to walk around in S1NGLETOWN through an exhibition.

In preparation of the upcoming US presidential elections, now only days away, both WIRED and Monocle did the exercise and laid out the cards of their ‘dream’ cabinet … not necessarily of politicians, of people running for power by choice, but of individuals they see most fit for the job to solve at least some of the most pressing challenges that US society is facing. It would be all too easy to dismiss their move as technocratic dreamery. Times are achanging and systems of governance, leadership and societal problem solving are not immune to that.

It is an interesting thought experiment to ponder over the future of our socio-political systems, yet it is also true that the person who dares to ask ‘what comes next, after democracy?’ can be fairly sure to be looked upon in disbelief, fear or outright insult. We use the term democracy often lightly – and in the meantime do not always do justice to its complexity by dumbing it down to but the folk notions that fill the airwaves – as if the concept has remained the same since it was coined in the stoas and on the agoras of ancient Greece. The term has remained the same throughout the ages but what the complex denotes has changed and continues to change. To remain in sync with the dynamics of contemporaneity and those of times to come, systems (need to) change. Change does not necessarily mean that good characteristics of the current system will disappear (nor bad ones, sic) yet reinvention ought to aim for the best fit not on where we are but also in view of where we wish to go. So what are the images people have of the future of our socio-political and institutional systems? How far can we and do we dare to look ahead?

In times in which big, familiar ideologies are fading or have stopped reinventing themselves and the political landscape looks bleak, covered with visionless or populist rubble, in times in which change is fast, challenges are huge and increasingly exceed election cycles and national borders, imagine a future where perhaps not party-politics but projects to tackle challenges define the team and the dynamics of the game of governance and leadership, where not politicians but a diverse mix of people takes the lead , where management vs. innovation of the nation and its systems are perhaps two different games played by different groups of people, within different timeframes, where … There are many aspects of our current system that could be different in the future. A thousand tomorrows are possible for those who set their mind to it.

Within the ‘Foresight tackling obesities’ project, which we blogged about earlier, our friends over at Shiftn created an amazing map depicting the forcefield surrounding obesity. Congrats Philippe & Co.! 

The causal loop map provides systemic insight into the wide variety of factors influencing the obesity epidemic. A thorough analysis of about 40 science reviews led to the identification of 108 drivers of obesity, interrelated through positive and negative effects.

Reflecting on the potential of maps like these: a next step of increasing the interactivity of the map could further enhance its value as an information insight or what-if tool. For example, select a relationship arrow and see what the relationship stands for. Or furthermore … select a few drivers, confirm or alter the parameters of their cause-effect relationship, push the action button and see what happens. Or … describe an effect (wishful or to avoid) and see which buttons need to be triggered in order to change the outcome as mentioned. In other words: the map, as an information visualization tool, can be a first step toward a full-fledged knowledge tool.

For those among you who still believe that little innovation can be expected to come out of Africa, check out AfriGadget every once and a while or catch up on Ethan‘s musings. It is a humbling experience, which forces one to see, realize and admit one’s ignorance with respect to the diversity of innovation throughout the world, especially in the less known – but often most stereotyped – corners of our planet.

The examples show once again how scarcity and constraints can be powerful drivers of change and stimuli for high-impact innovation. Now that modern communication technologies are taking over even the poorest and most remote corners of our planet, leapfrogging legacy systems of the West, their effect can be multiplied, scaled up more easily. Such endeavours show the immense potential of human creativity, no matter who you are or where you are born. We often block our own creative pathways, by looking for excuses: ‘it can’t be done unless we find a way to raise 30 billion euros’, ‘if only we were a multinational-sized company’, ‘it is impossible with the government organizing and/or orchestrating it’.

Of course, there are challenges which cannot be tackled using a cartwheel and a piece of rope (if you did get nuclear fusion to work in your basement using just that, drop us a line), challenges which do require large budgets, advanced organizational structures, etc. Yet all too often we use these arguments as but excuses in order not to ‘be truly creative’ & ‘try something’, ‘do something’, … In our spoiled context, it is easy to sense fear setting in as we realize that there is perhaps more to lose than to gain from trying. Risk management can be a killer as much as risk itself.

Massive change in terms of an increase in quality of life at personal & community levels can be but one mind and one pair of hands away. The driven individual is a powerful catalyst for change. Therefore, think again when installing elaborate innovation strategies before liberating the minds of individuals and breaking the shackles of their creative initiative.

For about two years already we have been a core partner in setting up “Plan C”, a transition management experiment in Flanders, aimed at catalyzing the societal shift to a world in which materials are managed in a sustainable way.

In a long term oriented participatory process seeded by OVAM (the Flemish Public Waste Agency) and guided by Pantopicon, Resource Analysis & the Center for Organizational and Personnel Psychology a possible future for sustainable materials management in Flanders was envisioned. Smart, creative, entrepreneurial minds from knowledge institutions, business and industry, ngo’s, government agencies etc. formed new alliances and have been smashing heads and hands together to come up with opportunities for radical innovation and structural change. 5 transition teams self-organized into 5 themes:

• closing the loop: cradle2cradle & beyond
• waking up society: towards a behavioral change
• at your service: from products to services
• tailored materials: making ‘making’ different
• sustainable plastics: towards a new basis

Each of these teams has defined a series of experiments they wish to set up and conduct in view of catalyzing structural change in the way deal with materials.

On October 15th, the current Plan C network members (60-80 heads strong) launches its vision, presents its experiments and invites fellow smart, creative and daring heads and hands to join in at a network-mindsstorm event in Mechelen (Belgium) (note: meeting will be in Dutch).

Spread the word and do join in!

Forget microfilm, here is the nanobook. Together with the Nano Imaging Facility of Simon Fraser University , artist Robert Chaplin created the world’s first nanobook “Teeny Ted from Turnip Town”, measuring a mere 69 x 97 microns. And yes, the book has an ISBN number.

Nanotechnology is not only inspiring many artists and designers, also the scientists and technologists are starting to see the potential of art and design to catalyze dialogue between the labworld and society at large. In similar fashion, the belgian nanotech player IMEC teamed up with our friends over at AddictLab a while ago. The project, named “in.tangible/scape.s” aims to bring the fascinating yet often obscure world of nanotechnology to life through art and design, a wonderful way to breathe life into yet nonexisting futures. An inspiration book on the results of the joint research project is under publication.

Together, both partners also set up NanoDesignAwards, of which the first edition will take place in 2009.

A few years ago the World Bank noted that “If the wars of the twentieth century were fought over oil, the wars of this century will be fought over water.” After all, a little less than 1% of the earth’s water is suitable for drinking. But water is also more than a physical need, an environmental context, it is part of humanity’s identity through rituals, culture etc.

In the belgian town of Hasselt, the culture and arts centre Z33 - building a strong reputation internationally (see also the International Herald Tribune article) with a series of thought provoking exhibitions – currently showcases a fascinating exhibition “1% water“ on the theme of water and our challenges for the future. Curated by Ilse Crawford (heading the “man & wellbeing” department at Eindhoven’s Design Academy) and  Jane Withers (design consultant, curator, writer), “The exhibition aims to be a catalyst for change, reconnecting us physically and psychologically to water and helping us to shape a sustainable future.”

The exhibition is split up into 4 main thematic areas. There is the water archive, an aquatic laboratory displaying a huge collection of bottles filled with water collected locally in different contexts, by different people. AbUse attempts to raise awareness about the precarious situation of global water supply. Art and design give form to and shape experience of issues such as pollution, scarcity, water footprint etc. Sacred waters shows the visitor the central role water has played and continues to play throughout human history, mythology and culture. On an experimental note, Reconnect shows initiatives aimed at turning the tide, from purifying water to revive our intimate relationship with water, utilizing the boundless, passionate powers of art and design.

Check out this pdf for some visual impressions. Yet if you can, go and check out the exhibition for yourself (until 28/09/2008), you will not be disappointed!

Microsoft moves to patent technological means to enhance or enforce good manners on people with respect to their ways of using technological devices. Think of it as the digital ‘service’ equivalent of the no-smoking sign. 

First it was the family, the home where children received their basic education in terms of norms, values, good and bad manners. Then it became the school’s job. Now technology steps into the equation as well …

Let us hope that people find more poetic ways and means of getting the message of good manners across than showing a dialog box message on the screen of your electronic gadget. Will your cell phone whisper to you “don’t shout”? or increase the volume on the other end so you don’t start screaming in the first place? Context awareness of technology is one of the – if not the – primary prerequisite for smart behaviour. Linking social values to the concept of smart is one way to enhance user experience not merely for the user but also his/her surroundings (human/natural/physical. It is important to note however that these values are often culturally defined or biased.

For those interested in more experimental/poetic ways to influence people’s behaviour when using for example mobile phones, check out IDEO’s Social Mobile Phones ’shock-therapy’ project by Crispin Jones & Graham Pullin.

Via ArsTechnica

The European association of plastics manufacturers, Plastics Europe, … commissioned UK futurist Ray Hammond to write a book about the world in 2030, with a special focus on the challenges for plastics.

Changing demographics, extreme weather conditions, peak-oil, resource-conflicts, surveillance society, hyperreal leisure time, robots, sustainable globalisation, healthcare revolution, virtual companions, biodigital interfaces, the global brain, new retailing, …

A summary of the book including a first response of the plastics industry on the challenges ahead, can be found here.

The Editors Weblog is running a series of exclusive interviews with editors of major newspaper agencies across the world on the future of journalism.

The questions are:

“How long do you think you will define your company as a newspaper company or a print company?

At this year’s World Economic Forum in Davos, a panel of futurists claimed that print newspapers wouldn’t exist by 2014. To what extent do you agree with this?

In journalism’s multi-centennial history, do you view the emergence of digital journalism as part of the continuity, or as a complete breakaway with previous forms of journalism?

Do you believe in the increasingly active role of the user in the news process, and is it a threat or an opportunity for professional journalists?

Do you consider that the Golden Age of investigative journalism is already past, or just beginning?”

Other questions people might wonder about re: the future of journalism: would the role of newspapers and news agencies in the world change in the future? will the notion of newsvalue change? in other words, will disaster, scandal and negative news still fill more pages than good news? will freedom of press and neutrality of voice be things that can still be taken for granted in the future? could language become richer (and correct) again? who will win: depth and quality or mere speed and quantity? will we be able to have a 360° ‘read’ of events, described and discussed from a variety of perspectives? will mergers and acquisitions in the media landscape flatten or enrich reporting? will the two way street between consumer and producer of content, or prosumers for that matter, receive ever more traffic? which new evolutions in their field do journalists dream of? which are the nightmares they fear? who will be the arbiters of quality tomorrow? how will the relationship between fact, opinion & intention evolve? which new skills will journalists of the future need to learn/develop? how will the value set of journalists evolve and differ from those of former days? …

Interviewed until now are Emily Bell (Guardian.co.uk, UK), Dan Bogler (Financial Times, UK), Jonathan Landman (NY Times, US), Abdul Hamid Ahmad (Gulf News, Dubai), Jaroslaw Kurski (Gazeta Wyborcza, Poland), Pana Janviroj (The Nation, Thailand), Pankaj Paul (The Hindustan Times, India), Mike van Niekerk (Fairfax Media, Australia), Azu Ishiekwene (Punch, Nigeria), Ed Greenspon (Globe & Mail, Canada), Jim Brady (WashingtonPost.com, US). Yes, we do miss our Belgian, Dutch, Danish, Swedish, Italian, Spanish, Greek, Chinese, Japanese, Brazilian, … newspaper.

Inspired by the X-Club, our fellow future explorers over at IFTF launched the X2 project a while ago. This ‘open’, collective research initiative aims to

“identify major trends and disruptions in science, technology, and the practice of science over the next twenty years and their impacts on the larger society.”

IFTF previously also conducted the UK’s Office of Science and Innovation’s Deltascan,  creating a database and map of trends and forecasts regarding the 50-year future of science and technology.