Technology explicitly designed or employed in such a way as to alter people’s behaviour (in a sense, technology as a medium always does, interaction design for example makes extensive use of affordances for example) is making its way into consumer products in ever more subtle, even poetic ways. According to Wired …

“Ford and Honda’s next-gen instrument clusters feature trees (a vine in Ford’s case) that grow more lush as drivers learn to hypermile — the fine art of maximizing fuel economy. Leaves grow like crabgrass in springtime if you use a light touch on the accelerator and go easy on the brakes. Drive like Jimmie Johnson and they’ll wither faster than General Motors stock.

The idea, says Honda VP Dan Bonawitz, is “to help drivers improve their efficient driving skills by making the hybrid experience more fun and rewarding.”

The article also includes reflections by Clifford Nass, which some of you with a background in HCI or interaction design might know from the lovely book he wrote together with Byron Reeves several years ago: “The Media Equation: How People Treat Computers, Television, and New Media Like Real People and Places”

Reading such developments, one might be reminded of what B.J. Fogg once called captology, which led to Stanford University’s Persuasive Technology lab. Like any paradigm it can be used for better or worse, yet let’s be positive and imagine this kind of design thinking aimed at mentality changes applied to issues of sustainability, good citizenship, healthcare, etc. Imagine waste bins encouraging you to sort your waste, mirrors encouraging you to brush your teeth as you’re supposed to (no scifi any longer), …

Inspired by Wired

… ironing shirts, wasting energy, shortening the lifespan of your shirt’s cloth. The Swedish brand Eton shirts has developed a coatingless cotton-fibre which returns to its original shape after washing. In fact bodyheat is enough to iron your shirt as you wear it. The fibre responds to heat – not unlike shape memory alloys) – to maintain its form.

Let’s extrapolate such a development for a second: imagine a world in which no shirts need to be ironed any longer. Consequences: significant decrease of energy usage since irons no longer need to be heated, presses are no longer necessary, thereby also increasing the lifespan of the shirt since the cloth is spared from several aggressive interactions. Combine that with a waterless washing machine such as Electrolux’ Airwash system. In terms of saving the environment. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how energy- & eco-efficient the production of the special cotton fibre (and the rest of its lifecycle) is before we can truly assess its impact. From a socio-economic perspective however – like any technological development which renders human (inter)action obsolete – the no-iron cotton fibre – if used on a large scale – might put extra stress on or obliterate ironing shops.

On a higher level of abstraction: think of all the kind of products which nowadays, because of their systemic or material makeup, require labour (implying usage of all kinds of other resources) in order to remain functional, usable etc. Windows need to be washed, houses need to be heated or cooled, etc.

What if … changes at the material/systemic level of these products, which nearly all of us use, could make these ‘wasteful cycles’ of energy. If employed at a large scale, effects (both positive and negative) of these changes can often be exponential in nature as they work their way through the chain of reactions linked to the lifecycle of the product. They alter the system of their ‘ecology’, their context (whether bio-, techno- or homosphere). Glass can be self-cleaning, houses can go without or using a minimum of heating/cooling energy, etc.

Across the Atlantic, the Ten Year Forecast Team of the IFTF recently published a future map laying out the various developments related to sustainability in view of the coming decade, for their client, the Global Environmental Management Initiative (GEMI). Think: slums as centres of innovation, rogue eco-states, collaborative eco-mapping, bioteaming, biohacking, biocommons, environmental defense forces, deep localism, distributed energy, etc.

Get the map and dive right in. There’s a wealth of information up for inspiration, interpretation and innovation for all.

For about two years already we have been a core partner in setting up “Plan C”, a transition management experiment in Flanders, aimed at catalyzing the societal shift to a world in which materials are managed in a sustainable way.

In a long term oriented participatory process seeded by OVAM (the Flemish Public Waste Agency) and guided by Pantopicon, Resource Analysis & the Center for Organizational and Personnel Psychology a possible future for sustainable materials management in Flanders was envisioned. Smart, creative, entrepreneurial minds from knowledge institutions, business and industry, ngo’s, government agencies etc. formed new alliances and have been smashing heads and hands together to come up with opportunities for radical innovation and structural change. 5 transition teams self-organized into 5 themes:

• closing the loop: cradle2cradle & beyond
• waking up society: towards a behavioral change
• at your service: from products to services
• tailored materials: making ‘making’ different
• sustainable plastics: towards a new basis

Each of these teams has defined a series of experiments they wish to set up and conduct in view of catalyzing structural change in the way deal with materials.

On October 15th, the current Plan C network members (60-80 heads strong) launches its vision, presents its experiments and invites fellow smart, creative and daring heads and hands to join in at a network-mindsstorm event in Mechelen (Belgium) (note: meeting will be in Dutch).

Spread the word and do join in!

A few years ago the World Bank noted that “If the wars of the twentieth century were fought over oil, the wars of this century will be fought over water.” After all, a little less than 1% of the earth’s water is suitable for drinking. But water is also more than a physical need, an environmental context, it is part of humanity’s identity through rituals, culture etc.

In the belgian town of Hasselt, the culture and arts centre Z33 - building a strong reputation internationally (see also the International Herald Tribune article) with a series of thought provoking exhibitions – currently showcases a fascinating exhibition “1% water“ on the theme of water and our challenges for the future. Curated by Ilse Crawford (heading the “man & wellbeing” department at Eindhoven’s Design Academy) and  Jane Withers (design consultant, curator, writer), “The exhibition aims to be a catalyst for change, reconnecting us physically and psychologically to water and helping us to shape a sustainable future.”

The exhibition is split up into 4 main thematic areas. There is the water archive, an aquatic laboratory displaying a huge collection of bottles filled with water collected locally in different contexts, by different people. AbUse attempts to raise awareness about the precarious situation of global water supply. Art and design give form to and shape experience of issues such as pollution, scarcity, water footprint etc. Sacred waters shows the visitor the central role water has played and continues to play throughout human history, mythology and culture. On an experimental note, Reconnect shows initiatives aimed at turning the tide, from purifying water to revive our intimate relationship with water, utilizing the boundless, passionate powers of art and design.

Check out this pdf for some visual impressions. Yet if you can, go and check out the exhibition for yourself (until 28/09/2008), you will not be disappointed!

Why can’t you plug a version 2.0 component into your car to replace that 1.9b or why can’t you exchange a diesel engine for a gas one? Why can’t you do that? Because it wasn’t designed as such: neither the notion of car-consumption, nor the car itself.

Several collaborative car design initiatives are seeking to redesign the car: to make it smarter, make it cleaner, make it cooler.

We already wrote about Markus Merz & Co’s OScar a while ago, but also check out the Society for Sustainable Mobility’s Open Source Green Vehicle Project, aka Kernel with its modular (nearly) ‘hot-swappable’ design. Or have a look at the Vehicle Design Summit‘s goal to collaboratively build a plugin-hybrid, low-cost, 200-mpg four seater for the Indian market. Also the big boys are in: Sabic‘s set up C,mm,n, an open-source car project ran by 3 three technical universities in the Netherlands. Then there is always the (Progressive) Automotive X Prize Foundation putting $10 million on the table for any team that comes up with a practical mass-producable car getting at least 100mpg (see also here).

As one can notice most initiatives focus on energy (if not fuel) efficiency, some also focus on materials, while few take a full 360° view on production, consumption, waste cycles etc. They are all still counting in gallons, the cars still look like ‘todays cars’. This both means that the threshold for people to switch to such a ‘car’ will be low, yet it also shows how the traditional concept of a car as we know it remains unaltered, hence raising the question as to where the real long view lies. Radical innovation is needed and efforts in this direction thus ought to question deeper lying assumptions of what a car is, could and should be.

Via FastCompany
Image by OSGV

The European association of plastics manufacturers, Plastics Europe, … commissioned UK futurist Ray Hammond to write a book about the world in 2030, with a special focus on the challenges for plastics.

Changing demographics, extreme weather conditions, peak-oil, resource-conflicts, surveillance society, hyperreal leisure time, robots, sustainable globalisation, healthcare revolution, virtual companions, biodigital interfaces, the global brain, new retailing, …

A summary of the book including a first response of the plastics industry on the challenges ahead, can be found here.

Mid-January Italian comedian Luciana Littizzeto commented on the underlying problems of the Naples’ waste problem, saying: “We are the only species that shits more than it eats!”.

Naples’ problems are far from solved, yet as in many difficult situations, the local community found ways to turn the situation’s threats into opportunities or in this case: trash into cash. Among other things, they organized a ‘trash market‘ selling reusable trash items. In a sense their scavenge hunt selections were not based upon material value of the found objects per se, but on the added value they might represent for their ‘customers’, i.e. their neighbours. What is worthless to one, can still be of high value to another.

Cradle to cradle design teaches us that waste is food. It signifies changes the starting position of our design endeavours. In this period of transition, we are of course required to deal with the waste that is present and unfortunately still continues to be produced. A series of initiatives is now now looking how to turn trash into cash or rather how to make the most, the best of the leftovers of our consumption society.

In the US, in Colorado, Professor of Architecture Julee Herdt is aiming to turn the state’s landfills into harvesting areas for new, environmental friendly construction materials. In New Zealand, ScionResearch runs the Waste2Gold Project, trying to accomplish three goals: a) using waste as a bio-processing feedstock,
b) combining waste with other materials for added value products and c) recovering energy and chemicals from wastes and residues. Examples Scion is working on include bacteria to turn waste into biodegradable polymers, new composite mixes (e.g. controlled-release fertilisers, biodegradable plant pots, panels, and other moulded plastic products), biomass energy sources (e.g. biogas, liquid biofuels, wood pellets etc.)

A nice trip through the history of ‘waste & wealth’ can be found at WasteAge.

Our Swedish friends from FutureDesignDays recently organized Light Now, the latest stop in their travelling NOMAD show, which dealt with the future of light(ing design). Their recent newsletter features a chat with lighting designer Kajsa Sperling from Gothenburg’s White office. Kajsa relates the future of lighting design to the designer’s social and environmental responsibility …

“Kajsa tells us that the light pollution in the world is an important reason for her commitment to lighting design. Light consumes brutal masses of energy. Kajsa is convinced that a new way of looking at lighting will be a significant part of the environmental work. We must dare to eliminate light, instead of adding more and more, in other words: less light and more focus on the lights we choose to keep. Lighting design is likely to be a very important part of building projects or urban space planning in the future. If it’s up to Kajsa to decide, every municipality ought to have their own lighting designer.”

Once again scientists, this time members of the Union of Concerned Scientists, expressed their worries about the possible dangers posed by farming crops which are genetically modified to grow medicines or chemical substances. The prospect of large scale, molecular farming aka pharming awakens fears of normal crops and gm crops mixing with unknown consequences feared disastrous.

Solutions proposed include cave pharming, i.e. molecular farming inside controlled, sealed-off artificial environments inside caves (see here).

Via environmentalgraffiti.com

We already signaled you the BBC documentary Visions of the future. Now, physicist and futurologist Michio Kaku takes us on another voyage into the fascinating world of possible tomorrows. This time, in a coproduction between Gruppe 5 ZDF and Discovery Channel (visual effects by 422 South), three stories are told set in the year 2057, each addressing a different scale level: the world, the city, the body. The videos combine a tech-inspired, integrated view of the future by means of a storyline, with documentary style lab-visits with scientists & engineers and their inventions.

It is probably because the series is aimed at a broad audience, that the storyline appears to serve as a binding element between the flashes about technological developments, rather than as a deeper, more integrated rendering of a future scenario. Storyline and acting clearly take a secondary position compared to the technological developments themselves.

We saw the episode, filtered out and put together the links to most of the science and tech projects mentioned (and added some of our own). Stay tuned for more news from 2057. (more…)

Lack of space? Go down underground (see also here). With the AMFORA project – Dutch acronym for Alternative Multifunctional Underground Space Amsterdam – Strukton and architectural office Zwarts & Jansma envisions a second cityspace below Amsterdam’s canals. Pricetag: around 10bn €.

“Through a system of underground spaces with entry and exit points along Amsterdam’s A10 ring road, a range of underground facilities can be created at various levels below the city. To name but a few of the many options, these could include parking garages, sports facilities, cinemas, cables and ducts, and supply facilities. The plan devotes a great deal of attention to the underground experience and architecture. Space, safety and sound orientation are central elements. [...] It is both feasible and sustainable. Creating a city beneath the city is not futuristic, it is a necessity in this day and age.”

Image by Strukton, click here for more.

Royal Dutch Shell, home to several scenario planning pioneers, takes another look into the future of energy and the related climate change challenge. In an open letter distributed in cooperation with Project Syndicate, CEO Jeroen van der Veer sees two major pathways to a possible future of a more sustainable energy mix (i.e. including wind, solar, hydro, bio and nuclear): the scramble way and the blueprints way. In any case, the shift is necessary as it is foreseen that easily accessible oil and gas reserves will most likely not be able to keep up with demand after 2015. In a nutshell :

scramble scenario: nations hurry to secure their energy reserves, local coal & biofuels rise, policy makers basically sit back and wait until things go wrong as energy consumption and and greenhouse-gas emissions are not mitigated, result: spikes & volatility in energy prices. Sounds familiar?

blueprints scenario: new coalitions emerge to tackle energy-, economy- and environment-related challenges together, local authorities/policymakers, industry players and R&D/innovators work together, national governments adjust their instruments (taxes, incentives, standards, etc.) to help curb things in the right direction (especially in terms of buildings, vehicles & transport fuels), at a world level harmonization increases, cars run increasingly on electricity & hydrogen, CO2 is increasingly captured and stored underground

Shell sees the blueprints scenario as the best move in terms of the energy, economy, environment equation, but does mention some requirements for it to succeed.

The approach taken in the blueprints scenario follows a path similar to that in transition management initiatives (Pantopicon is involved in several such projects at the moment, e.g. Plan C), in which common challenges are explored and ideals shared, new cross-boundary coalitions are formed bottom up, innovative pathways to the ideal are explored, experiments are set up, to explore not one but a series of possible solutions and spark innovation, etc. Succesful solutions will be scaled up gradually through society-wide capacity building.

“The world faces a long voyage before it reaches a low-carbon energy system. Companies can suggest possible routes to get there, but governments are in the driver’s seat. And governments will determine whether we should prepare for bitter competition or a true team effort.”

Via Alex over at Worldchanging.org

Alex and Dominic Michaelis and several researchers from the University of Southampton are working on a proof of concept prototype of their energy island.

The structure is an all-in-one solution featuring (open cycle) Ocean Thermal Energy Conversion, i.e. making use of the temperature difference of water at different depths in the ocean to generate electricity via a turbine. The process desalinates water, providing drinkable water as well. But there is more, the modular energy islands would also feature energytech to generate power from sun, wind, waves and underwater currents. Furthermore, vegetable farms could grow food.

“Each energy island would operate in a similar way to an oil rig, with about 25 people living there to operate the energy systems and food farms,” said Alex Michaelis. ‘Teams of workers would spend six weeks on the island and six weeks off. The islands can be linked together so if you wanted a bigger power output you could simply build a bigger settlement. In the future these energy islands could be linked together to become eco-tourism attractions.’”

The energy island is also in the running for Branson’s Virgin Earth Prize. Especially the way in which the concept tackles several challenges (food production, energy, drinkable water) in a combined fashion, is fascinating.

Thanks for the suggestion, Michael!
Image by EnergyIsland.org

Jamais over at OpenTheFuture developed a set of four possible future scenarios describing ways of responding to the challenges brought about by global climate change. The scenarios for the Institute for Ethics and Emerging Technologies were constructed on the basis of two core questions:

1. Who makes the rules? (centralized vs. distributed)
2. How do we use technology? (precautionary vs. proactionary)
   

… and feature elements from three main approaches to tackling the climate crisis: prevention, mitigation, remediation (read also here).

Functional Green (centralized & precautionary): “a world in which top-down efforts emphasize regulation and mandates, while the deployment of new technologies emphasizes improving our capacities to limit disastrous results. ”

Power Green (centralized & proactionary): “a world where government and corporate entities tend to exert most authority, and where new technologies, systems and response models tend to be tried first and evaluated afterwards. “

We Green (decentralized & precautionary): “a world in which collaboration and bottom-up efforts prove decisive, and technological deployments emphasize strengthening local communities, enhancing communication, and improving transparency.”

Hyper Green (decentralized & preactionary): “a world in which things get weird. Distributed decisions and ad-hoc collaboration dominate, largely in the development and deployment of potentially transformative technologies and models.”

Read here for more detailed scenario information.