The Apollo mission gave us pictures of our planet from space. Finally we could behold our planet from a distance. We could look at it as an object on the table in front of us, within reach, and as we did our planetary awareness grew. Confronted with several planetary challenges now, our planetary conscience is now gradually shaping up as well. Aside from looking at our planet, NASA‘s Earth Observation System (EOS) reads our planet through satellite data. Access to this information is a prerequisite for learning to understand our planet better. Now we can not only look at our planet, Prof. Shin-ichi Takemura’s amazing Tangible Earth project allows us to interact with our planet and the data emerging from it by touch.

In view of coming up with solutions to the challenges we are facing, sensing our planet has become sheer necessity. We increasingly do so in real time as well: within mouseclick reach we check webcams on the other side of the planet, we can download data from weatherstations around the world, etc.
Until recently, the sensing world was pretty much the playing field of NASA and the likes. The future promises to be more open in this respect (see  also open source efforts such as GSN) and consequently much larger – and since we’re talking data: more powerful. Years ago, in describing his wish of an Earth Witness Project, our fellow future explorer Jamais Cascio already pointed to opportunities opened up by the convergence between labs on chips, mobile phones and sharing networks to create an open global sensor network.

Now several companies and grassroots initiatives are preparing to put technology in the hands of citizens. Already we can deduce a lot of information from information we leak by the mere usage of our communication technology, as Carlo Ratti‘s Senseable cities team at MIT shows us. Nokia’s Eco Sensor Concept plans to make us more active participants in the game. Imagine millions of always-on, networked tricorder-like devices sensing our planet : local data + networks + sensemaking = global intelligence. Hewlett-Packard is developing the equivalent of a globally distributed stethoscope (CeNSE) to monitor our planet’s health, and look to nanotechnology as an enabling technology. “The motivation for this work is realising and understanding the planet is sick and the disease is us.”, says Dr Stan Williams of HP’s Information & Quantum Systems Laboratory.

An often forgotten challenge is how to use tech already out there to turn them into sensors for our health and that of our planet. Think about the tech equivalent of using ‘useless’ bath-tub ducks which fell off a ship, to study ocean currents.

Although some are still Grail-hunting for ‘one source of sustainable to replace them all’, the more interesting debate on possible future mixes of sustainable energy production, transport and consumption is going strong as well.

According to researchers at Cal State University “high-altitude wind machines could power New York City” (see Wired article). And a consortium of German companies is trying to get Operation Desertec off the ground and use the sunny side of Northern Africa to feed Europe with 15pct of its electricity needs through solar energy. And although many agree with the basics of Kissinger’s ‘interdependence through trade increases peace and stability’ strategy, recent problems in terms of energy provision as a political weapon (e.g.  Russia cutting off gas,  pipelines being attacked elsewhere in the world, etc.) raise fears and warnings regarding creating a new situation of European ‘dependence’.

Solar technology is becoming more powerful each day. Lonnie Johnson (of supersoaker fame) “says he can achieve a conversion efficiency rate that tops 60 percent with a new solid-state heat engine. It represents a breakthrough new way to turn heat into power.” JTEC (or the Johnson Thermoelectric Energy Conversion System) “[...] uses temperature differences to create pressure gradients. Only instead of using those pressure gradients to move an axle or wheel, he’s using them to force ions through a membrane. It’s a totally new way of generating electricity from heat.” says Paul Werbos, a programme director at the NSF, one of the funding partners of JTEC.

Yet, of course, there is more out there than just wind or solar, there’s biomass, wave, geothermal, hydrogen, fuell cell, bodyheat, body movement, piezoelectric surfaces,  etc.

There is the science, the technology & the economics, the promises and … the reality. For those of you curious about the numbers behind the current state of the art re: the sustainability/energy discourse, check out David JC MacKay’s astonishing book Sustainable Energy – without the hot air (see his website).

Image: WIRED magazine

You must have noticed as well. The signals have been there for at least a few years, yet they are sounding ever louder. People are increasingly hungry for the real thing, the meaningful, to reaffirm not merely their uniqueness or personal identity, but also their humanity, their grounding, to deepen their experiences, to contribute to something beyond mere consumerism.

Urban farming is on the rise, DIY stores are buzzing with activity, eco-tourism is hot, slow food gains ever more adepts, homegrown fruit and home-baked bread taste for more … Is the economic downturn pulling our feet back to the ground? No, it might amplify things, but things started way earlier. Does the increasingly virtualization of our experiences, of our relationships with both stuff and people, make us nostalgic for more ‘human’, more ‘tangible’ times of direct interaction? Is the superficiality, the airiness of consumer culture making us feel lost? Are we longing to beat negative talk & hear-say with positive action? Trendwatchers say that – in large numbers – we are looking for authenticity, others call it ‘back to basics’, although there seems to be more to it than just another label. Some sociologists fear we are sitting on a timebomb, and refer to a growing gap between those able and willing to follow the ever increasing pace and demands of contemporary post-industrial society and those unable or unwilling to do so.

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Le Corbusier once described the house as a machine for living in. Designer Eduardo McIntosh designed a whole series of such machines and called them Autonomous Living Units. His work was presented during the Future Cities: Past, Present exhibition at the d3 gallery in New York last month.

“Autonomous Living Units is a somewhat satirical project that stands at the intersection of the current housing crisis, the tendency of people in developed countries to live on their own and the trend of turning architecture into a consumer product. The project poses a scenario in which living units ( homes) have evolved into the most minimal yet visually alluring objects that can still provide for the basic needs of the 21st century human being. Because of the morphing of architecture into furniture, the Living Units could be inserted in derelict areas and ruined housing projects.”

Via Boite-a-outils

In 1970 the futurologist Alvin Toffler published Future shock … a book about signs of the time and of times ahead, times in which the (increasing) speed of scientific and technological progress oversteps the pace of the human heartbeat. It becomes too much for many to digest and a sense of discomfort rather than techno-enabled comfort sets in.

Few people remember – hey, I wasn’t even born yet – that in 1972, a documentary version was made of the bestselling book, narrated by Orson Welles. Although over 30years old, there remains a contemporary relevance to the story being told. Some might even see a few parallels between “the future shock” phenomenon and “the singularity”.

Sit back and enjoy the movies (1, 2, 3, 4, 5).

Via Smashing Telly

Continuing our stroll through the growing landscape of corporate future visions, we re-stumbled upon Microsoft. Microsoft Office Labs put out a series of videos glimpsing ahead into the future of banking, retail, manufacturing and healthcare during the past few years, each time keeping a time horizon of 5-10 years in mind. Although the viewing experience is somewhat hindered by the low quality of the videos, check out some of their mixed-reality futures …

Health (2007) – Imagine a future where you can monitor your own health with smart, connected devices, your health team can share data seamlessly, and doctors are empowered with a view of health records across multiple sources – all leading to better, faster, safer, more personalized care.

Manufacturing (2006) – Imagine a manufacturing environment of the future where workers collaborate seamlessly across time-zones, predictive technologies automate processes, and sense and respond systems are connected across organizations, leading to better innovation, improved efficiencies, and more flexibility for customized products.

Banking (2005) – Imagine a banking experience where you’re always connected to your finances, banks are empowered to anticipate your needs, and transactions are seamless through predictive technologies – whether you’re in the branch, at home, or on the go.

Retail (2004) – Imagine a store of the future where you can quickly find and purchase everything you need; you have instant access to the product information you want; and the store can anticipate your needs and provide price and product offers in tune with your shopping history.

For those of you only out to get a quick glimpse, check out the montage.

Via Customer Experience Labs

In their Big Ideas section, McKinsey’s Quarterly taps into the themes of growth & innovation. In times of economic downturn, crisis, extreme market challenges … the mantra to ‘innovate or die’ sounds louder than ever. André Andonian, Christoph Loos and Luiz Pires address the big picture in Building an innovation nation, Amar Bhidé takes a closer look at Where innovation creates value, Alberto Alessi talks about Cultivating innovation, Hayagreeva Rao looks at Market rebels and radical innovation etc.

Succesful innovation depends on how much your innovation efforts are in tune with your changing environment and the challenges these changes pose. On What Matters, McKinsey addresses some of the major challenges (clustered thematically) businesses need to assess when aiming for a succesful future. As such, they look into biotechnology, climate change, the credit crisis, energy, geopolitics, globalization, health, innovation, internet & organization and turn to some of the brightest minds in these areas for reflections on the world of tomorrow.

To mention but a few of the interesting reads to be found on the site: our friend John Thackara points to The innovator next door, Juan Enriquez looks at How biotech will reshape the global economy, Eric D. Beinhocker and Jeremy Oppenheim talk about Building a postcarbon economy, Stephen S. Roach wonders about new times After the era of excess, Andy Grove and Robert Burgelman assess An electric plan for energy resilience, Jacqueline Novogratz looks into Innovative business models for the poor, etc.

Like any truly disruptive technology, the web changed the world in myriad ways. Can you remember times before the internet? Surely the medical world can. Before the internet the amount of patients showing up at the doctor’s with a binder full of ‘mediknowledge’ downloaded from the internet and demanding answers, challenging the knowledge of the expert, was definitely smaller than in today’s world. For a long time medical and pharmaceutical knowledge was the domain of a select group of people and organizations. They were the one and only point of reference. This has all changed. As access to specialist information and specialist tools increases, many of the walls separating the medical world and the rest of us come tumbling down.

In the ‘old’ model, research in terms of diagnostics or cures, was – and often still is – ruled by the cult of numbers. Many rare diseases are considered too costly in view of limited statistical impact, hence considered ‘economically  uninteresting’  to investigate, leaving groups of individuals with rare diseases or developing countries out in the cold. 

Wired magazine tells the story of Hugh Rienhoff. Reminiscent of Lorenzo’s oil, the article shows the admirable and moving quest of a parent in search for an explanation for his daughter’s genetic problems and the difficult relationship with the inner culture of the medical world as he pursues his journey. Rienhoff launched a website mydaughersdna.org to share his experience with parents fighting the same battles, exchanging insights gained, problems encountered, etc.

The medical and pharmaceutical world is changing … from within and under the influence of outside pressure. Increasing numbers of individuals start their own research journeys thereby co-setting the agenda, the pricetag for full-genome sequencing is falling, increasingly medical cases are being documented in – many times open – online shared databases (e.g. DECIPHER) leading to exponential increases in insights gained, pharmacogenetics promise the arrival of truly personalized medicine, previously specialist lab technologies are coming within reach of individuals.

Like with any opening up of previously closed ecologies of information, there is the issue of quality of information and interpretation on which ‘knowledge’ depends, the spectrum with on the one end experts, on the other quacks. Could a p2p model work in the medical world? Especially in complex areas such as genetics it already is leading to massive change. Could a more open model of knowledge exchange benefit the medical profession and humanity in general? Surely, there are advantages to be gained, yet also requiring new mechanisms to be put/grown in place and new challenges to be tackled.

For years we have heard about rainforests disappearing from our planet at worrisome rates. Now, a recently published article in the International Herald Tribune notes that a few developments – in scenario terms: drivers of change – have perhaps been neglected too much in past attempts to assess the future of rainforests. As farmers are leaving their land for the city for example, the jungle is spreading out again.

“By one estimate, for every half a hectare of rain forest cut down each year, more than 20 hectares, or 50 acres, of new forest are growing in the tropics on land that was once farmed, logged or ravaged by natural disaster.”

Although their capacity to absorb CO2 and produce oxygen is recognized, several experts doubt however whether these secondary forest offer the same ecological qualities as ‘old’ rainforests. 

In discussions with clients we often encounter the phenomenon: years of media exposure to information about certain trends diminishes people’s critical reflection about and on possible countertrends. Even questioning the sheer possibility of the countertrend meets incredulity. Nevertheless, the what-if question remains a valuable thought experiment!

“Wright – an internationally respected scientist – said he knew he was stirring up controversy when he suggested to a conference of tropical biologists that rain forests might not be so bad off. Having lived in Panama for 25 years, he is convinced that scientific assessments of the rain forests’ future were not taking into account the effects of population and migration trends that are obvious on the ground.”

Via The International Herald Tribune

In light of some major challenges the world and humanity as a whole are facing – e.g. climate change, depletion of natural resources, pollution, mobility issues etc. – future threats and opportunities are increasing the sense of urgency for massive change. As such, also many of the world’s bigger companies – especially those threatened by the future and a changing public opinion – are turning to storytelling or more open platforms in order to share with their (and new) audiences the ways in which they see, prepare for and involve others in the creation of/steering towards a better future. 

Hitachi is sharing ‘true stories‘, Shell shows their future/innovation oriented endeavours on RealEnergy, Volkswagen takes us to 2028, Philips Design has its probes, Xerox has its Future of Documents blog etc.

Toyota recently launched an interactive website to show and let people explore the ways in which they see and prepare for the future. 

“Toyota’s vision of future mobility. Minimize the Negative, Maximize the Positive and Humanize Mobility.

To enrich people’s lives and society in the future as well as achieve sustainability, technologies must be developed that have minimal negative impact on people and the environment and bring maximum benefit to people’s lives.

Going even furter, Toyota is also incorporating the hopes and dreams of people from all over the world into research and development to create future technologies that are more attuned to human beings. Toyota-future.com introduces Toyota’s future endeavours in a variety of fields, including:

- the safety, comfort and environmental standards demanded of new vehicles

- new mobility to enable greater freedom of movement

- partner robots to support people and benefit society”

Seen interesting ways in which companies showcase their ‘futures’? Drop us a comment.

Meet Oblong Industries‘ G-speak, an amazing gesture based interface à la Minority Report allowing ‘hands-on’ interaction between people and data. The resemblance is no co-incidence as one of Oblong’s founders – John Underkoffler, formerly at MIT’s Tangible Media Group – was one of the science advisors to the movie-team.

“The g-speak platform is a complete application development and execution environment that redresses the dire constriction of human intent imposed by traditional GUIs. Its idiom of spatial immediacy and information responsive to real-world geometry enables a necessary new kind of work: data-intensive, embodied, real-time, predicated on universal human expertise.”

Some of the system’s features seem to build further upon early-day HCI projects at Frauenhofer (GMD at the time) in the 90s.

In 1975 Ernest Callenbach published Ecotopia (revisited by NY Times here), a novel which quickly gained cult status (see also video). Three years later, fascinated by the book, architect Craig Hodgetts (of Hodgetts+Fung Design) crafted a set of amazing drawings depicting some of the scenes and concept envisioned in the book, eager to produce Ecotopia for the big screen. Imagine retro-yet-ever-so-futuristic balloon generators over San Francisco Bay, solar-powered high-speed mag-lev trains, helium-filled mylar balloons to lift and orient a wind-powered generator, …

Callenbach said it right: “It is so hard to imagine anything fundamentally different from what we have now, but without these alternate visions, we get stuck on dead center.” 

Inspired by TheArchitectsNewspaperBlog

We could have easily called this post the future of money, yet in a more profound sense the current financial climate and the questions it is raising are provoking us to rethink value and the systems we devise to organize processes related to it.

Heather Moore, User Experience Manager at Vodafone, recently launched the lovely public domain initiative KashKlash aimed at an open discussion to co-create our future value systems. The sharing economy, the reputation economy, the gift economy, the free economy, alternative economies, shifting balances between production and consumption, ways to replace money, etc. are all themes up for debate over at the website.

 

“We are envisioning a new world where today’s aging, less useful and even dangerous financial systems

are replaced by or mixed with more disruptive innovations and exchanges. Imagine yourself deprived of all of today’s financial resources. Maybe you’re a refugee or stateless. Yet you still have your handset and laptop and Internet and a broadband cellphone connection….”

 

Bruce Sterling proposes to explore 4 future scenarios, set up around 2 key variables: the degree of stability in exchange systems (ranging from a ‘confusing mess’ to ‘massive change’) & the state of communication technology (ranging from ‘old and broken’ to ‘the new cloud’).

Check out the stories of the scenarios’ main characters Big Mama, Greifswald, Rebel kids and Brixels.

Technology explicitly designed or employed in such a way as to alter people’s behaviour (in a sense, technology as a medium always does, interaction design for example makes extensive use of affordances for example) is making its way into consumer products in ever more subtle, even poetic ways. According to Wired …

“Ford and Honda’s next-gen instrument clusters feature trees (a vine in Ford’s case) that grow more lush as drivers learn to hypermile — the fine art of maximizing fuel economy. Leaves grow like crabgrass in springtime if you use a light touch on the accelerator and go easy on the brakes. Drive like Jimmie Johnson and they’ll wither faster than General Motors stock.

The idea, says Honda VP Dan Bonawitz, is “to help drivers improve their efficient driving skills by making the hybrid experience more fun and rewarding.”

The article also includes reflections by Clifford Nass, which some of you with a background in HCI or interaction design might know from the lovely book he wrote together with Byron Reeves several years ago: “The Media Equation: How People Treat Computers, Television, and New Media Like Real People and Places”

Reading such developments, one might be reminded of what B.J. Fogg once called captology, which led to Stanford University’s Persuasive Technology lab. Like any paradigm it can be used for better or worse, yet let’s be positive and imagine this kind of design thinking aimed at mentality changes applied to issues of sustainability, good citizenship, healthcare, etc. Imagine waste bins encouraging you to sort your waste, mirrors encouraging you to brush your teeth as you’re supposed to (no scifi any longer), …

Inspired by Wired

… ironing shirts, wasting energy, shortening the lifespan of your shirt’s cloth. The Swedish brand Eton shirts has developed a coatingless cotton-fibre which returns to its original shape after washing. In fact bodyheat is enough to iron your shirt as you wear it. The fibre responds to heat – not unlike shape memory alloys) – to maintain its form.

Let’s extrapolate such a development for a second: imagine a world in which no shirts need to be ironed any longer. Consequences: significant decrease of energy usage since irons no longer need to be heated, presses are no longer necessary, thereby also increasing the lifespan of the shirt since the cloth is spared from several aggressive interactions. Combine that with a waterless washing machine such as Electrolux’ Airwash system. In terms of saving the environment. Nevertheless, it remains to be seen how energy- & eco-efficient the production of the special cotton fibre (and the rest of its lifecycle) is before we can truly assess its impact. From a socio-economic perspective however – like any technological development which renders human (inter)action obsolete – the no-iron cotton fibre – if used on a large scale – might put extra stress on or obliterate ironing shops.

On a higher level of abstraction: think of all the kind of products which nowadays, because of their systemic or material makeup, require labour (implying usage of all kinds of other resources) in order to remain functional, usable etc. Windows need to be washed, houses need to be heated or cooled, etc.

What if … changes at the material/systemic level of these products, which nearly all of us use, could make these ‘wasteful cycles’ of energy. If employed at a large scale, effects (both positive and negative) of these changes can often be exponential in nature as they work their way through the chain of reactions linked to the lifecycle of the product. They alter the system of their ‘ecology’, their context (whether bio-, techno- or homosphere). Glass can be self-cleaning, houses can go without or using a minimum of heating/cooling energy, etc.